Trump claims mail-in voting will result in rigged election

President Trump’s claims that a rigged election will follow from mail-in voting raises concerns over a potential constitutional crisis.

President Trump has made it clear: he may decide not to concede the 2020 election even if he is defeated because the defeat could be a result of fraudulent voting.

fraudulent mail-in voting is very rare

Many studies (here’s a list) have shown that voting fraud is rare in the United States. After the 2016 election, President Trump– unpersuaded by studies– formed an investigative panel on election fraud. The panel was disbanded in 2018 after it found no significant evidence of election problems.

a constitutional crisis could follow from Trump’s claims of voter fraud

2020 scenario #1

Trump wins the electoral college vote decisively. Probably no crisis.

2020 scenario #2

Trump loses the electoral college vote decisively, he contests it, but both political parties accept the results. The transition might be bumpy but it probably goes forward without a crisis.

2020 scenario #3

Trump loses the electoral college narrowly, he contests it, the Republican party stands behind him. Who decides the election? Maybe the Supreme Court; maybe Nancy Pelosi. Will Trump abide by either? How does the public feel about both the new president and the old one? Who gets their allegiance?

2020 scenario #4

Trump wins the electoral college narrowly, he declares himself a winner–despite uncounted mail-in ballots that remain after Election Day. Then, the “blue shift” follows in which the mail-in count shifts the outcome to a Democrat and determines the winner to be Biden. Note: The “blue shift” refers to mail-in ballots from predominantly Democratic areas that shift the vote to the liberal candidate.

With this, if Republican-controlled states refused to accept the legitimacy of the mail-in ballots, and designate their electoral votes for Trump, we could have two winners and a crisis.

Geek out on election fraud and the many studies that show it’s not a thing.

Is mail-in voting a good idea? Check out the debate here.


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